World Gaming Magazine

36 WGM #55 2018/02 wgm8.com 37 WGM #55 2018/02 wgm8.com were 10-3 straight up (5-8 ATS) without Curry through the first half of this season and we estimate their line movement with Curry sidelined to be as little as two points. Casual punters who think the absence of Curry is worth more than a handful of points have burned their cash before the opening buzzer. Even James’ net value of between five and seven points falls well below the expectation of most punters as do those of Giannis Antekounmpo (six points), James Harden (five points), Kawhi Leonard (five points) and Russell Westbrook (four points). Like a night in an exclusive club with an NBA “player” drinking US$500 bottles of Grey Goose, the wrong decisions quickly become very expensive! 2 017年3月，《ESPN 杂志》的分析期刊中刊登了一篇 文章，很是值得细心阅读。该文章深入分析了最近 二十年间，NBA球队客场作战时的表现。多年来的 变化之巨，着实令人诧异。回顾1987-88赛季，主队的胜 利比率高达三分之二（确切数字为67.9%），平均得分差 为5.8分，为有记录以来的最高点。 然而在不足十年间，主场的优势差距已大幅减半。时 至1996-97赛季，主队的胜利比率仅为57.5%，而平均得分 差亦下降至仅仅2.6分。二十一世纪头十年，主队的胜利比 率一直在60%左右徘徊，但时至今日，该数字已固定于不 足60%的水平（2016-17赛季的主队的胜利比率更创新低， 仅为57.4%）。究竟发生了什么？！ 这背后的原因不一而足，其中包括球员滥药酗酒的情 况创历史新低、豪华且舒适的旅途让客场作战不再难熬、 裁判员已习惯主队球迷的嘘声压力等等。但正如某NBA球 队总经理所指，最主要的原因还是在于方兴未艾的Tinder 社交应用程序。 在Tinder年代搞派对，球员无需离开酒店，让派对送 上门即可。球员既然无需花时间精力到夜店寻找陪伴，客 场作战的行程也就变得前所未有地轻松且有效率。话说回 来，球员在私人时间做些什么，可不容我们置喙！ 从投注者的角度出发，球员的夜间活动尽如人意，的 确有助于球队在客场作战时取得前所未有的佳绩。 影响球员表现的因素固然多如恒河沙数，但在投注者 与庄家的永恒争斗中，任何空穴来风均事必有因。有关 NBA球员及球队表现、比赛及投注分析等的文章和资料可 不少，要在投注时无往而不利，花时间钻研球赛知识乃不 二法门。 诚然，投注岂可只依赖老生常谈或以讹传讹？深入了 解，方能稳操胜券。比如说，最近几个赛季，人们一直在 NBA超级巨星的价值这个议题上辩论不休。勒布朗•詹姆 斯或斯蒂芬•库里等星级球员不在阵中时，对球队的影响 究竟有多大呢？ 就库里而言，其缺阵的影响其实微不足道。2017-18 上半个赛季，他缺席了合共13场比赛。库里在阵时，金 州勇士在法定时间内的净得分比他缺阵时高出11.4分。然 而，庄家却没有因此调整赔率，因为替补库里的凯文•杜 兰特已堪当重任。金州勇士在库里缺阵的13场比赛中，取 得10胜3负（赌盘为5胜8负）的佳绩。据我们估计，库里缺 阵时的实质影响仅有2分。 投注者如果高估库里缺阵的影响，定必在博彩游戏中 折戟。事实上，詹姆斯在阵与否的分野为5至7分，此数字 远低于评论员所想，扬尼斯•阿德托昆博（6分）、詹姆斯• 哈登（5分）、科怀•伦纳德（5分）及罗素•卫斯特布鲁克 等人亦不遑多让。 正所谓一子错，满盘皆落索，由错误分析引致的错误 抉择，足以让投注者蒙受极大损失，实在不可不察！ I n March 2017, a story appeared in ESPN Magazine’s analytics issue that made for essential reading. The crux of the piece was the staggering change in performance over the past two decades by NBA teams playing away from home. In the 1987-88 season, home teams won more than two-thirds (67.9 per cent to be exact) of games, boasting an average winning margin of 5.8 points, the highest on record. But in less than a decade, that home-court advantage gap had been sliced in half. By 1996-97, home teams won only 57.5 per cent of the time, by an average margin of only 2.6 points. After hovering around 60 per cent for most of the 2000s, home court advantage is now firmly entrenched in the high 50s (it fell as low as 57.4 in 2016-17). What the hell? There are a handful of reasons for this – players are “imbibing” less than ever, they travel in a standard of luxury normally associated with first-class travel and referees have become more attuned to coping with the boos of home fans. But as one NBA General Manager highlighted, the main reason is the “Tinderization” of the NBA. Players no longer need to leave the team hotel to find a party. The party comes to you. The NBA road life is simply more efficient – and less tiring – when hours are not spent trolling nightclubs looking for companionship. Who are we to judge how players spend their down-time! But as punters, this revelation regarding such nocturnal activities presented a massive opportunity as road teams went on a historically rich run of results. Of course, stories such as this are proverbial needles in a stack of needles, but the gradual addition of such weapons are essential in the punter’s endless war with the bookies. There are plenty of resources out there that regularly run well considered and logical articles on analytics and we recommend a sizeable time investment to help build your knowledge of the game. And perhaps, more importantly, such research will help you break down pre-conceived notions and widely- accepted fables that will dent your bankroll just as effectively. One such area in which we’ve been dabbling over recent seasons is the true value of the NBA’s superstars – just how much does the absence of a LeBron James or a Steph Curry impact their respective outfits. In the case of the latter, it hardly matters at all. The Golden State Warriors are rated (net) an 11.4-point better side with Curry, who missed 13 games in the first half of the 2017-18 season, on the floor. But the bookies barely move the line when Curry is seated thanks to the presence of a ready-made replacement in Kevin Durant. The Warriors 游戏 PLAY