World Gaming Magazine

36 WGM #57 2018/04 wgm8.com 体育 SPORT E ven the most casual English Premier League (EPL) fan knows that each club’s season comprises 38 games. But froma punter’s perspective, that number simply marks the finish line. Think of it like a journey to the top of Mount Everest – you can’t get there without passing through the numerous camps en route to the summit. At the time of writing, there were seven games remaining to decide the 2017-18 EPL champion, along with which three teams will be relegated. These final weeks are a “season within a season” and provide an insight into the way the overall EPL campaign should be viewed. Indeed, my EPL betting model separates the season into five distinct sections. So much changes over the course of a nine-month crusade – injuries, personnel changes (both on and off- field), momentum, ambition and bankroll are just a few examples. The teams that run out for opening day often bear little resemblance to the 11 that start the final game of the season. Despite these obvious considerations, many punters fail to alter their betting approach. Teams like Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham entered 2017-18 with high hopes of a potential title run but Manchester City have smashed those dreams into oblivion. With eight to play, City are a massive 16 points clear of their crosstown rivals in the league and have also reached the final eight in the UEFA Champions League – their preferred target, by far. So is it reasonable to expect a drop-off in City’s League 英 超的知名度无远弗届，就连资历最浅的球迷也知 道，每一支球队均会在赛季中踢上38 场比赛。然 而，从投注者的角度而言，比赛场数仅象征终点 线。漫长的英超赛季可比征服珠穆朗玛峰之旅——要登上 顶峰，征服者必须步步为营、稳扎稳打地向前迈进。要一 蹴而就，只是一厢情愿而已。 执笔之时，2017/18赛季只剩下7轮比赛——这可是决 定冠军谁属、哪三支球队将会降级的生死大战。这7 轮比 赛好比小决赛，将决定整个赛季的结局。事实上，笔者向 来将整个英超赛季分为5个部分。 英超赛季旷日持久，在9个月的漫长征战中，伤病、场 内场外的人员变动、士气、目标和财政等方面经常产生变 化。赛季第一轮比赛的出场阵容与最后一轮的出场阵容， 往往是差天共地。这些考虑因素看似明显不过，却为众多 投注者所忽视。 在2017/18赛季展开前，切尔西、曼联和热刺等球队 显得雄心万丈，定要冲击冠军宝座。然而，曼城却一骑绝 尘，彻底粉碎了他们的如意算盘。曼城在尚余8场比赛之 时，已大幅抛离排名第二的球队达16分之多，更盎然挺进 欧洲冠军联赛八强。前者大局已定，后者将是重点。 那么，曼城的联赛表现有可能下滑的看法是否有道 理？往绩告诉我们，不大可能。过去10年的数据显示，六 成的英超球队在欧洲赛场出战后，能在紧接着的联赛比赛 中取得相同或更佳的成绩。何况曼城还在力争成为英超史 上第一支积分过百的球队——期望这样一支球队栽跟斗， 恐怕不切实际。 英超赛季踏入尾声之际，最值得留意的其实是积分排 行榜末端。西布罗姆维奇看来已是回天乏术，但还有多达8