World Gaming Magazine

37 WGM #58 2018/05 wgm8.com W hen the 2017-18 NBA season kicked-off, the vast majority of experts were tipping another fairly predictable two-horse race between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The reigning champs were rated as low as $1.60 to go back- to-back while the Cavs were the only other team in single figures at $3.50. By the eve of the Finals, things had taken a turn for the surreal. The Warriors entered the postseason a distant second to the Houston Rockets in the West. Meanwhile the Cavs barely limped into the top four in the East with Toronto, Boston and the upstart Philadelphia 76ers posting superior regular season marks. The bookies countered by easing GSW to $2.20 while LeBron James and the Cavaliers had drifted to $7.50. The Rockets were rated second favorites to go all the way ($3) while the Raptors were into $11, having been priced as high as $81 earlier in the campaign. This scenario neatly fits one of a trio of strategies that are worth following throughout the playoffs. During the regular season, punters typically bet favorites against the spread (ATS) approximately 75 percent of the time. Come playoff time, that number drops to 57 percent. We get it – it’s the postseason so both teams must be of a decent quality which means a value play on the underdog. The stats suggest otherwise. For example, take the third seed in the West where there’s a 17-win gap between Houston, Golden State and the rest of the field. That’s still a significant gulf in class. It also doesn’t make much sense as ATS favorites cover the line at a marginally better rate (improving to 50 percent from 49) in the playoffs compared to the regular season. As the number of bets increase on the ATS favorites, books adjust, so watch for teams that have attracted less than 40 percent of bets in this situation. This contrarian approach leads to a strategy with which even the most casual NBA punter will be familiar. The concept of the zig-zag system is quite simple – bet the team that lost its previous game. The logic is that, 詹姆斯•哈登能否带领休斯顿火箭夺冠？ Can James Harden lead the Houston Rockets to be crowned World Champions?