World Gaming Magazine

32 WGM #59 2018/06 wgm8.com （1赔5），紧追其后的是德国（1赔5.25）、法国（1赔7） 和西班牙（1赔7）。 角逐本届世界杯决赛圈的32支球队，其中不少与其他 球队鲜有交往，仅在国际友谊赛中偶尔见面。那么，该如 何分析各支球队的实力？国际足联排名，不失为参考因素 之一。巴西和阿根廷乃名列世界前五的顶尖强队，但在两 大强敌的夹击下，乌拉圭、哥伦比亚和秘鲁仍然在南美区 预选赛中杀出重围，足见其实力水平。相比之下，国际足 联排名首35位中，全然不见亚洲球队身影；排名最高的伊 朗，亦仅名列第36位。 假若研究分析得宜，不妨下注某球队出局阶段等较为 冷门的选项。在世界杯历史上，仅有两支亚洲球队通过16 强的考验，分别是1966年的朝鲜和2002年的韩国。与此同 时，世界杯史上亦只有三支非洲球队杀入1/4决赛，包括 1990年的喀麦隆、2002年的塞内加尔和2010年的加纳。 这样的大趋势，应该会在本届世界杯上延续。 预期入球是另一热门研究指标。预期入球与实际入球 相对，针对的是球队在某比赛中应该出现的进球数量。预 期入球的数值，取决于射门、点球、任意球、射门数字、 射门位置、比赛状态和对手后卫位置等因素。 以澳大利亚为例。在漫长的亚洲区世预赛中，其每场 平均预期入球与失球分别为2.7及1.0。环顾全球参加世预 赛的球队，澳大利亚的预期入球与失球差极好，在排行 榜上名列第五。然而，在世预赛中对阵澳大利亚的其他球 The World Cup is also the biggest global event in terms of sports betting (dwarfing even the NFL and NBA) with the fortunes of sportsbooks all over the world often coming down to a successful tournament in terms of revenue and payouts. Since the last World Cup, Russia has also legalized and regulated sports betting, so this tournament will be a boon for those newly licensed sportsbooks. Punters will also be familiar with the bulk of markets on offer – from the usual match betting markets to group betting options (to win or to qualify) and overall tournament markets. The Golden Boot winner for the tournament’s highest goal scorer is the most popular of the exotic markets. As at time of writing, Brazil ($5) and Germany ($5.25) occupy the top line of betting with France and Spain ($7) on the next line. So how is it possible to compare 32 teams, many of which rarely cross paths expect at this level or in the occasional international friendly? The FIFA rankings are a good place to start. Teams like Uruguay, Colombia and Peru have prevailed after a qualifying campaign against a pair of sides that are ranked in the top five in the world – Brazil and Argentina. In contrast, not a single country from the Asian confederation is ranked inside the top 35 (Iran is best at 36). The use of methodology opens up some nice betting opportunities in secondary markets such as a side’s most likely stage of elimination. In tournament history, only two Asian nations have progressed beyond the Round of 16 (North Korea in 1966 and South Korea in 2002). Similarly, just three African finalists have featured in the quarter- finals (Cameroon in 1990, Senegal in 2002 and Ghana in 2010). That trend is unlikely to change at Russia 2018. Expected goals are another method of approaching the World Cup. In contrast to “actual” goals scored, “expected goals” (or xG) are the number of goals a team could expect to score in a match. This is determined by assigning a value to shots on goal, penalties, free kicks, the number of shots, shot location, the in-game situation 世界杯特刊 World Cup Special