World Gaming Magazine

33 WGM #59 2018/06 wgm8.com and the position of opposition defenders. Let’s useAustralia as an example. TheAussies averaged approximately 2.7 xG per game throughout their marathon AFC qualifying campaign while conceding 1.0 xG per game. Their xG differential ranks fifth among Russia 2018 qualifiers. But their opponents amassed an xG differential of -1.43 during qualifying. In contrast, Germany tallied an xG differential of 2.88 in qualifying against a group of sides whose xG differential was -0.65 – that’s more goals and against better oppositions. The next step is to break down the relative strength of the groups using so-called “Monte Carlo” simulations – taking xG ratings to predict the outcome of each game. Group F is the strongest while Groups A and H are the weakest using this method. Not surprisingly, Germany (22 percent chance of winning the tournament), Brazil (16 percent), Spain (13 percent) and France (12 percent) emerge at the head of the markets under such analysis. An all-up on those four is a pretty safe way to go. Despite the small sample size, some trends have emerged in the past three World Cup finals tournaments that are worth following. Just 20 of the past 96 group games have finished in draws, a figure just north of 20 percent. That’s 5 percent lower than the global top flight league average and 10 percent below the average in the top European leagues. In the knockout stage at Brazil 2014, the rate of 90-minute draws rose to almost 45 percent. Betting the +2.5 goals game total during the group stage of the past two tournaments and the -2.5 goals (across 90 minutes) in the knockout stage of South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014 also emerged as profitable betting strategies. We’d be surprised to see either trend change significantly at Russia 2018. And one last piece of advice – ignore the experts! No individual has intimate knowledge of all 32 contenders so stick to the latest news emerging from the individual camps. • As with all forms of sports betting, ensure you have appropriate bankroll strategies in place, always chase the best possible price and understand the concept of value when making football wagers. 队，其预期入球与失球差却是-1.43。相比之下，德国的世 预赛预期入球与失球差高达2.88，同组对手的预期入球与 失球差则是-0.65，显示德国不仅进球较多，且同组球队的 实力也较强。 接下来，可用「蒙特卡罗」模拟（即按照预期入球与 失球差）推论，计算世界杯决赛圈每一分组的强弱。如此 计算下，F组最强，而A组及H组则最弱。各大热门强队的 夺冠几率分别是德国22%、巴西16%、西班牙13%和法国 12%。那就是说，同时分散投注这四支球队夺冠，不失为 稳妥的策略。 尽管往绩数据有限，但过往三届的世界杯决赛圈还是 隐藏着一些值得注意的趋向。其中之一，是96场小组赛 中，仅有20场出现平局，即几率稍高于20%。这一数据比 全球顶级联赛的平局出现率低5%，比欧洲顶级联赛的平 局出现率更低10%。然而，踏入2014巴西世界杯淘汰赛阶 段，90分钟内平局的比例却高达45%。 回顾2014巴西世界杯和2010南非世界杯，在小组赛 阶段投注每场入球差高于2.5球，继而在淘汰赛阶段投注每 场（90分钟）入球差低于2.5球，应是有利可图的策略。 2018俄罗斯世界杯，大概会延续这样的趋势。还有一则建 议：请大家务必忽略所谓的专家意见！世界上没有人会对 全部32支球队了然于心。与其盲目跟从专家意见，不如自 己关心每一支球队的最新消息。 • 一如其他任何体育博彩，玩家应在进行足球博彩 时制定合适的资金策略，时刻在投注时寻求最有 利的赔率，并了解赔率的价值。