World Gaming Magazine

39 WGM #61 2018/08 wgm8.com 达阵一次为七分，而射门进球则为三分，故常见赛果的比 分组合是有迹可寻的，如31比28、28比21及17比14等等。 在国家美式足球联盟近半个世纪的历史中，皇朝盛世 可是绝无仅有。事实上，最近十二个赛季的总冠军分别由 九支球队夺得，同期夺得总冠军两次或以上的，仅有新英 格兰爱国者和纽约巨人。国家美式足球联盟赛事——尤其 是超级碗——的投注种类五花八门，包括胜负、得分差和 总分等等。 国家美式足球联盟是极其成熟的投注领域，有说其专 家投注者的数目，足以填满拉斯维加斯规模最大的赌场。 如是者，业余玩家究竟如何能在这个投注领域中获利呢？ 我们一般建议，玩家应在制定投注策略和赌注计划前进行 研调，但在国家美式足球联盟领域，要掌握所有相关新闻 和信息是不可能的。这倒也无妨，反正专家投注者已经做 好功课供业余玩家参考。 首先，寻找一个列出公众投注与专家投注比例的数据 来源（covers.com可谓其中的佼佼者）。这些数据，来自 位于拉斯维加斯众多赌场中的投注记录。就往绩而言，反 公众之道而行的投注，不失为有利可图的策略：其赢盘比 率高达约58%；若集中关注主队，赢盘比率高达约60%。 专家投注者同样注意的，是让分分界线（如减三分或 加七分）两端的关键变化。在其他项目高达加三点五分之 际以加三分的让分投注，或在其他项目低达减六点五分之 际以减七分的让分投注，将大为提高长线胜率。所获投注 额低于总量20% 的冷门球队，其赢盘比率却高达55.4%， 相等于0.5分让分。 除反公众之道而行外，玩家亦可追踪并跟随专家的资 金流。比如洛杉矶公羊主场对阵西雅图海鹰，前者让分为 punters can at least rely on a consistent flow of data from such contests that are played more regularly than others. Other sports such as basketball, baseball and hockey have consistent scoring with either one or two points at a time and final score margins that are consistent across all numbers. In the NFL, the most likely final margin is three points (almost 10 percent of all favorites win by exactly a field goal). The combination of seven-point touchdowns and three-point field goals also creates a number of common final scores (31-28, 28-21, 17-14 and so on). Dynasties have been few and far between in the half- century history of the league. Indeed, nine different teams have shared the past 12 NFL titles, with only the New England Patriots and New York Giants winning multiple trophies in that period. The main NFL betting categories are head-to-head, spreads and totals to go with myriad exotic options, especially come Super Bowl Sunday. So what hope does the enthusiastic amateur have of taking on and beating such a mature market populated by enough wiseguys to fill the biggest Las Vegas casino? Normally we advocate undertaking your own research prior to building a betting strategy and staking plan but it’s virtually impossible to stay on top of the relevant news and information. And in this case, those wiseguys are doing the hard work for you. Firstly, find a data source that features a split of the public/consensus versus sharp/smart money being placed on NFL games (covers.com is an excellent example). This