World Gaming Magazine

38 WGM #62 2018/09 wgm8.com 体育 SPORT 根据我们估计，其他有能力登上皇者宝座的球队分别 为利物浦（24%）、托特纳姆（11%）、切尔西（8%）、曼 联（4%）和阿森纳（3%）。 降级区经常出现「升降机」情况，即从英冠升级至英 超的球队，往往因表现不济而在新赛季结束后降回英冠。 三支升级球队全数免遭降级厄运的情况，在英超时代仅出 现过两次，分别是2000-01赛季和2011-12赛季。诺里奇 市、西布罗姆维奇、水晶宫、赫尔城、莱斯特城、米德 尔斯堡和沃特福德均曾出现「升降机」情况。2018-19赛 季的三支升级球队伍尔弗汉普顿流浪者、富勒姆和卡迪夫 城，全都拥有在英超作赛的经验。 仅凭这些基础资料，我们已可粗略估计新赛季的走 向，即三大热门球队的夺冠几率合共高达84%，而三支升 级球队均属五大降级热门之列（其余两支球队为布莱顿和 哈德斯菲尔德）。 我们相信，富勒姆不会遭受降级的厄运。新升级球队 常面对攻力疲弱的问题，但富勒姆在上赛季英冠中的入球 率高达每90分钟1.57球，其攻力之强在联赛中名列第二。 富勒姆阵中的赖安•塞塞尼翁、亚历山大•米特罗维奇和安 德列•许尔勒等人，无一不是得分能手。 预期入球这统计数据近来大行其道，投注者们也应当 注意。我们曾在世界杯决赛周前瞻中，深入分析这统计 数据的重要性。简而言之，预期入球针对整个赛季的有效 性，高于其针对短期锦标赛的有效性。预期入球所针对 的，是球队在某比赛中应该出现的进球数量。预期入球的 数值，取决于射门难度、射门位置、射门方式及防守方人 数等因素。综合某场球赛中所有射门的预期入球数值，即 可得出该场比赛的预期入球数。 Reigning champion Manchester City started the new campaign as prohibitively-priced favorites ($1.60 on most markets). We rank City a 49 percent chance ($2.05) of becoming the first repeat champions since 2009. They deserve top billing after shattering a stack of EPL records last season, including most points (100), most wins (32), most road wins (16) and most goals scored (106). The other clubs we rate a chance of taking the title are Liverpool (24 percent), Tottenham (11 percent), Chelsea (8 percent), Manchester United (4 percent) and Arsenal (3 percent). At the other end of the table, we also know that there’s a significant yo-yo factor, where clubs are regularly relegated after being promoted from the second-tier Championship. Only twice inthePremierLeagueerahaveall threepromoted clubs survived their first season in the top flight (2000- 01 and 2011-12). Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion, Crystal Palace, Hull City, Leicester City, Middlesbrough and Watford have all experienced promotion/relegation in the EPL era. The three clubs promoted for 2018-19 – Wolverhampton Wanderers, Fulham and Cardiff City – are also no strangers to the top flight. So taking these most basic of facts, already a picture of the scenario for 2018-19 is emerging. Just three clubs account for an 84 percent chance of becoming EPL champions while the three promoted clubs justifiably sit among the five clubs most likely to be sent back to the Championship (along with Brighton and Huddersfield). We’re confident that Fulham won’t be among the relegated clubs. Newcomers mostly struggle for goals but the Cottagers scored 1.57 goals per 90 minutes last season, second most in the Championship, with Ryan Sessegnon, Aleksandar Mitrovic and Andre Schurrle all capable of finding the back of the net. There’s another asset that even the most casual of EPL bettors should seek out – expected goals. We discussed this concept at length in the World Cup finals preview and it’s far more effective and accurate across a full league campaign than a shorter-format tournament. To remind, expected goals is a statistic used to calculate how many goals should be scored in a match, with every shot taken given an “expected goal” value based on the difficulty of the attempt, distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders. The “expected goal” value of every shot in a game is used to calculate the “expected goals” (xG) of a match.