This article first appeared in the Jul/Aug 2012 issue of World Gaming magazine.
All blackjack players know when the dealer gets 17, he has to stand. When a player gets 17, he doesn’t have to stand, but should he hit?
The “textbook” strategy of blackjack tells a player not to hit when they have 17, but many players are not happy and can’t help asking for another card, especially when the dealer is showing an 8 or higher. Is this the right thing to do?
Let’s have a look at the winning chances of 17. Among the 13 cards from 2 to ace, only 2, 3, 4 and an ace can improve a player’s hand if they choose to hit their 17. An ace adds one point to result in a new total of 18, a 2 results in 19, and a 3 results in 20. The best is a 4, which results in a new total of 21 (which is unbeatable apart from the unlikely dealer blackjack scenario). The rest of the cards (5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack, queen and king) will cause the 17 to bust, and lose before the dealer takes any action. There’s not even a chance of a push, let alone the dealer busting.
From the above example we can easily see, among the 13 cards, only four can help us and nine of them make us lose completely. In other words, when we hit 17, the chance of improving our hand is 31 percent, and there is still no guarantee we will win, while there is a 69 percent chance we immediately lose.
When people play blackjack and get 17, it’s understandable they are not happy, because it’s not competitive. If the dealer also gets 17 it is a push and if the dealer gets any other total without busting, he wins.
This is an awkward situation on the blackjack table. If we stand the chance of winning is small, but if we hit the chance of winning is even smaller. Therefore, it’s not hard to draw the conclusion that the right thing to do is to shrug our shoulders and stand on our 17s.
In blackjack, there are lots of difficult decisions. For example, holding 8-8 (16) when the dealer holds a 10, should we hit, stand or split? Maybe even surrender? What about holding 9-9 (18) against the dealer’s 9, should we split or stand? From this issue’s example and previous discussions you can see the correct principle – when making a difficult decision the question we must ask ourselves is “which decision maximizes our chance of winning or minimizes our chance of losing?”
Once we know the answer to that question, we have our decision for that situation, and we should always stick to it when the scenario in question arises.
