This article first appeared in the Jul/Aug 2011 issue of World Gaming magazine.
The new English Premier League season raises some interesting questions for punters, especially those who like to take advantage of future betting.
Manchester United lifted the premiership title last season without really facing any challenges after the New Year break. Arsenal kept self-destructing and Chelsea left their run too late as the Sir Alex Ferguson juggernaut kept rolling along and picking up enough points to claim the title. So where does that leave us for this season? Let’s have a look at the contenders, their prices and most importantly the value bets for the 2011-12 premiership season.
Manchester United
Odds: $2.75
United deserves to be the favourite. They are an awesome sporting club that doesn’t contemplate failure. Year after year they produce the goods and they will at some stage look the winner. They are an ageing outfit and will have to buy some talent if they are to win. At times last year they looked like ‘Dad’s Army’ but Ferguson doesn’t do long term rebuilds. He simply finds the right players to fill holes. He also has Rooney who should continue to get better if he can stay out of trouble and stop fighting with his manager. By laying Manchester United you always put your money at risk but if there has ever been a year they looked vulnerable this might be it.
Verdict: Under the odds, look for better value.
Chelsea
Odds: $3.75
Chelsea looked to be the most settled team in the EPL for the majority of last year. They were clearly the best team at the start of the season and finished the season playing the best football. The problem was there was a two-month period in the middle of the season where they kept dropping points. This is a team that will be desperate for success this year and they will feel there is no better chance to recreate the success they enjoyed only a few years ago. One thing you have to like about this team is they don’t appear to have any significant weaknesses and as long as they can score goals up front they will be more than competitive.
Verdict: Probably the best bet of them all. They just seem to be the team with the fewest major problems to address.
Manchester City
Odds: $4.50
City finally lifted some silverware last season with their 1-0 win over Stoke in the FA Cup Final. Even though the FA Cup doesn’t hold the glory it once did, the Sky Blues at least proved to themselves they were capable of getting the job done. It has been a few seasons since the cheque book was opened and it is crunch time for City to prove they have really arrived as a serious premiership contender. They appear to be a settled team and if they can start to grind out points like the big boys they have the list to press for the title.
Verdict: It’s easy to like City this year and all things suggest they are ready to challenge. Their price though is very short considering they have never looked like challenging for the title in this era.
Arsenal
Odds: $8.00
What a debacle last season was for the Gunners. Arsène Wenger looked a broken man at times when his team continued to stumble into trouble every time they pressed United. At times they played breath-taking football but at other times they looked like a rudderless ship. They have plenty of problems that need to be addressed. The manager needs to take back control of his football club or they have to look to someone else. Their star needs to get fit and start playing consistently and they need to find a defense and a world-class goalkeeper – not one who couldn’t keep his spot in the third division under 13s. Having said that, if they can make these changes they are capable of anything.
Verdict: This is the hardest call of all the teams. The price looks tasty but they have some huge hurdles to leap if they are to challenge.
Liverpool
Odds: $10
Kenny Dalglish holds a special place in every Liverpool heart. There is something about the man that is contagious. He will bleed for the team and his team will ‘never walk alone’ while the Scot is there. If passion still has a place in football then Liverpool is capable of doing something special this year. They finished last year in fine fashion after looking in relegation trouble early in the season. They need to spend money and plenty of it but don’t be surprised if they are more than competitive this year.
Verdict: Like Arsenal they appear to be very attractive at the odds. If they get off to a good start they could easily rocket into $5 and you could look to trade them off. They need a good start to ignite the passion that is bubbling under the surface. Monitor their trading to assess their chances.
Tottenham
Odds: $51.00
The London side finds themselves in an interesting position. They are clearly outside the top five in betting but they are the only other team that deserves to be less than 500/1 in the competition. They appear to be exactly where their price suggests. They will do enough to easily stay in the top half of the table but to suggest they will trouble the big guns would be optimistic at best.
Verdict: Tottenham are more realistically a $101 proposition. The only argument you could make for them is there doesn’t seem to be a standout team this year and they could shorten if they get off to a good start. When the whips start cracking later in the season don’t expect them to be challenging.
