This article first appeared in the Nov/Dec 2012 issue of World Gaming magazine.
Stop being a sports betting donator and become a sports betting guru with WGM’s simple sports betting tips. This issue Big Jim explores the concept of betting on long-term future events such as the winner of an entire season.
Betting on futures is a large part of the sports betting industry. In sports betting parlance future betting means predicting what will happen long in the future (not just in the next few days). This usually means betting on which team or person will win a certain event or competition, or perhaps finish in a certain top bracket, such as within the top eight positions. You can even bet on who is going to win the wooden spoon!
Before the days of online betting exchanges futures were always good for the bookies because they held the money for a long period of time and spread such bad percentage markets. Once betting exchanges opened their doors bookies found they had to be more competitive in their futures markets, so now it is a very viable avenue to make money.
The first mistake most punters make is reacting too quickly to any one game or match. They do this because that is what the media tends to do. The media is not just about reporting on news it’s about creating interesting news that captivates its audience. So when a good team loses a game they should have won the media rings the alarm bells with gusto. This captures everyone’s attention and the market moves more than it should.
The flip side to this is when an average team causes an upset and wins against a good team; again the media starts to blow their trumpet and punters get carried away. Again the market overreacts.
Tennis is a good example. In tennis, favorites get beaten. It quite often happens in the early rounds of a tournament before the champions have hit their straps. How often does the giant killer go on to win the tournament? Nearly never is the answer. Athletes are only human and humans are capable of incredible feats one day but aren’t always capable of backing that up in a high-pressure situation later in the tournament.
Another thing to look at is how often do teams go undefeated in a season? The answer is nearly never, in whatever competition you want to look at. Teams that win the cup have their bad days, they just have fewer than their opposition and they tend to win the games that matter.
So the answer is, bet on teams after they have a loss rather than a win. This way you will get a better price. Also don’t get carried away with betting on teams that have a great win or a great start to the season. It is a bit like buying shares – try to buy in the trough, not at the peak. In this age of modern professional sport you find that solid teams with good players and experience in making finals nearly always lift the trophy at the end of the season. Don’t get suckered into betting on “this week’s shooting star”.
Follow future issues of WGM for more expert insight into the world of sports betting. For more regular sports betting schooling visit our website www.wgm8.com where WGM’s resident sports betting guru Big Jim provides a daily tip for our readers to bet on.
