I said at the start of the year that 2013 looked to be the year of Novak Djokovic. He went out and got the job done at the year’s first Grand Slam tournament in Australia so let’s take a peek at his next two assignments. I’m getting in early here and I recommend that you put your future bets on now too to make sure you get a good price before all the smart money comes pouring in.
The French Open may be the most intriguing battle of them all this year. The big question at the start of the year was the fitness of the Spanish bull Rafael Nadal. He missed the Australian Open but has returned with a vengeance with tournament wins in Brazil and Mexico on clay and his first hard court victory in over a year at Indian Wells last week.
The greatest clay court player of all time is already into the red paying around $1.90 to win at Roland Garros this year which pushes Djokovic to clear second favourite at around $2.50 (although you can get closer to $3.00 if you shop around). Roger Federer and Andy Murray are both around the $12 to $15 mark and you would think that both of these players would need the draw to open up for them as they are both playing on their least favourite surface.
The other two dark horses are Juan Martin Del Potro ($14) and David Ferrer ($21). Both of these guys are clay court sluggers and Del Potro’s form in 2013 has been promising. As usual, Ferrer has been as reliable as a Swiss clock. I know you want a tip here, but this is a coin toss. I think Nadal should be favourite with Djokovic the danger man. It’s just a matter of which one you like. I would steer clear of Federer and Murray but Del Potro could be an outside chance of an upset.
The Wimbledon market will move around even more after the French Open but the one thing that is certain is that Nadal will drift from his French Open price while Federer and Murray will both dramatically shorten. Djokovic will probably start the tournament at around the same $2.50 to $3.00 price range but will be a clear favourite. Keep an eye on grass court guns Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who will be ready to unleash their giant serves.
If you are looking to have an early bet you should try gazing into your crystal ball to see what kind of mental condition Djokovic is likely to be in. I think the pressure of the home crowd will be too much for Murray, which leaves Roger Federer as the value bet. The Swiss champion wouldn’t be playing if he didn’t think he could add to his Grand Slam tally and the lawn surface in London is far and away his best chance. My best long shot would be Tsonga who I expect to have a very good 2013.
That leaves plenty to think about in the coming months and it might be best to wait and see how form plays out prior to the start of these tournaments, but remember you can always pick up a bargain early if you are smart enough to work out the puzzle.
