Can it even be called a downturn anymore? Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau released its official figures for the month of May yesterday with gaming revenue down 37.1 percent on the same time last year to MOP$20.3 billion. But with these latest figures marking exactly one year of monthly decline, surely it is time to stop measuring revenue against the halcyon days and accept the new reality.
While most news reports overnight focused on Macau’s “prolonged decline”, the more telling statistic wasn’t so much that revenue was down 37.1 percent but that this figure is perfectly in line with the total decline for the first five months of 2015 – also 37.1 percent.
If anything, the evidence suggests the market has now steadied – providing Macau’s casino operators with a reasonably reliable marker from which to base their short-term forecasts. The local gaming industry has been spoiled for more than a decade by huge year-on-year growth, so the idea of having to rebuild “slowly” represents a new and unfamiliar way of thinking.
Yet if they can accept the concept that small steps are good steps – particularly given the past 12 months – then there are some positives to be taken from yesterday’s news too. Macau’s 37.1 percent fall in May was not only less than each of the previous three months, it was also the third month in a row the percentage fall had improved following February’s record 49 percent slump. May’s figures follow a 39.4 percent decline in March and 39 percent drop in April.
With that in mind, it will be interesting to see how the current month plays out now that Galaxy Phase II and Broadway Macau have joined the party. It’s quite possible that revenues will have dropped again on 2014 levels but risen compared with recent months – the perfect scenario to test Macau’s choice of perspective.
The time has come to forget the past and start looking to the future.
